Bayesian Materia Medica

Criteria for validating indicating symptoms:

• At least 2 cases of the medicine with the symptom.

• Moderate or high statistical certainty: CBP of n-1 >0.8

Criteria for validating keynote symptoms:

• Prevalence in the medicine population >7%

• LR >3

Criteria for validating contra-indicating symptoms:

• High statistical certainty: CBP <0.05

(CBP: cumulative binomial probability, n: number of cases of the medicine with the symptom)

Why do we use cumulative binomial probability (CBP) for symptoms' statistical validation? Read here